7. Part II.

"Lev Gumilyov's Lessons. Or why do we need a theory of ethnogenesis?

                                                          History--without historiography -

                                                          is the same as a body without a soul.        

                                                                                        Г. Shimanov    

          Let us recall the golden words of Lev Nikolayevich Gumilyov: "I have long known what passionarity is, and that it is possible to apply working passionarist approaches in historical categories. And that historical problems can be solved with my concept as easily as a person who knows algebra solves arithmetic problems.”    

        Knowing the theory of passionarity, we are able today:

1) to estimate the course of Russian and world history in an absolutely new way;

2) to answer such questions of modernity, which nobody could answer intelligibly until the concept of ethnogenesis appeared;

3) to make probable forecast for the future of Russia and other civilizations of modern world.

        The main point here is the prognosis. Practice has shown that most historians and philosophers using Marxist and other Western theories are bad prognosticators. They can be excellent tacticians, but weak strategists. Such scholars may be good at showing a "systemic crisis of capitalism," or a "transition from modern to postmodern," or anything else that has already happened. But they cannot predict how this mess will end. Most often they talk about frivolous things - the "end times", the "electronic concentration camps" (which are on the way!), or the rescue of the select few in the oasis cities of the "Wild Field". (?). And of course, the hope is expressed that humanity will be saved by science, new technologies, space exploration, etc.

        Gumilyov said that his theory could have an applied value. This means that it can help us see the underlying mechanisms of such tectonic processes as globalization, world crisis, clash of civilizations, and, based on this, predict their (processes) development.

        But most importantly, the theory of ethnogenesis can help us in the concrete matter of strengthening Russian statehood and restoring the Russian world - Big Russia. An example of this is the creation in 2015 of the Eurasian Economic Union, which became the first real implementation of Gumilyov's idea of Eurasian integration.

       This and much more will be discussed in the second part of the book.

 Debunking the myths.    

         Let's start with the obvious. There are still many different myths and misconceptions in our public consciousness about the history of Russia, its present and future. For example, the myth that our history, in contrast to the history of Europe, was particularly terrible, bloody and catastrophic. In general, everything we had "not like people" (civilized people) - then riots, then repression, then the revolution. And with the XIX century, there is even an opinion that the history of Russia - is in general some inexplicable zigzag in human history.

         Gumilyov on this subject wrote the following: "Whatever they say, even if Chaadayev or Berdyaev, our history is no more bloody, no more gloomy, no more catastrophic than the history of the same Europe, the Near and Middle East or China, where in ethnic upheavals two thirds, three quarters and even occasional, nine tenths of the population (China, VI century) were destroyed."

        There is no need to list here all the horrors of the European Middle Ages and especially the Reformation. This is common knowledge. It is enough to recall that in one Thirty Years' War alone (1618 - 1648) Germany lost 75 percent of its population, there were 16 million, left - 4. And more people were killed in Paris during one Night of Bartholomew than during the seven years of Ivan the Terrible's oprichnina. 

          According to Gumilyov's theory, this erroneous view of Russian history was formed because Europeans have experienced their outrages and catastrophes much earlier than Russians: they, as we know, are 450 to 500 years older than we are. Gumilyov wrote: "France...in the 15th century, just as Russia in the 20th, was ablaze in the flames of civil war, only it was fought not by the Whites and Reds, but by the supporters of the Duke of Orleans and the Duke of Burgundy. People hung from trees were then regarded by the French as a familiar element of the native landscape. But, as we know, by the middle of the seventeenth century the breakdown in Europe was over, and the next centuries Europeans lived in a relatively prosperous phase of inertia. During this time much has been forgotten.

         When the young Peter I arrived in Western Europe for the first time at the end of the seventeenth century, he experienced a real shock. After the poor, "wild", rebellious Russia (the acme phase) he saw a quiet, well-fed and cultural life.

The comfortable Holland seemed to him an earthly paradise. So he decided to borrow all this "beauty" in its entirety, from new technologies in shipbuilding to wigs and tobacco smoking. Peter I was at the level of knowledge of the time, so he could not know the laws of the development of civilizations. He was a typical technocratic rationalist. And he was in a great hurry. Therefore he decided that, together with the military-technical innovations we need, it is possible to transfer to the Russian soil foreign customs, law, and economic relations. Then it all turned out badly. But we wanted something better.

        Since the end of the XVIII century there is another widespread intellectual delusion. Its essence is as follows: Russia is part of Europe, and therefore there is no need to seek some kind of special way, some kind of Russian idea (because look "how people live ..."), you just need to do everything according to European standards, and life will improve by itself. We tried it several times. It does not work!  It’s especially so if you take the sad experience of borrowing in the field of political structures (so-called "democracy") and ideology (liberalism).

         Gumilyov wrote: "The mechanical transfer into the conditions of Russia, of Western European traditions of behavior has yielded little good, and this is not surprising. After all, the Russian super-ethnos emerged 500 years later. And we, and Western Europeans felt that perfectly well, we realized it and did not consider each other as "theirs". Since we are 500 years younger, no matter how we studied the European experience, we cannot achieve the prosperity and morals typical for Europe.  This does not mean that we must reject someone else's experience from the outset, but we must remember that it is exactly that, someone else's experience". The European super-ethnos "emerged in the ninth century and within a millennium came to the natural end of its ethnic history. That is why we see in Western Europeans highly developed technology, a well-ordered life, the rule of order based on law. All this is the result of a long historical development.

         Gumilyov wrote this about Europe, which is still in the phase of inertia. Now, as we know, other times are coming there.  

          However, it should be noted that along with the well-known and already familiar "liberal" myths, caused by an inferiority complex before the West, in recent years we have had other myths, more precisely – anti-myths, which aim to respond to the blow and to praise the Russian people and Russian history above all other peoples and stories.

        For example, recently published in a lot of "historical" books, which address the question of the origin of the Russian people. Some "historians" include the emergence of Russian people almost to the Ice Age, others to the III - II thousand BC. ("Aryans"), others generally believe that at first there were only Russians on the territory of Eurasia ("children of the gods"), and only then all others descended from them.

         Such books are written mostly by good people, sincere patriots of Russia.  More often than not they’re idealists. The goal is good - the revival of the Russian spirit through a return to its roots, the strengthening of national identity and the restoration of insulted dignity of Russian people. All this is fine, but completely unscientific. This patriotism is fabulous, mythological. And sometimes it is anti-Christian, since it is based on Slavic paganism, about which science knows very little, and which, by definition, cannot be the basis of a modern national ideology. (Going back from Orthodoxy to Paganism today is like going back from university to elementary school!)

         In the final analysis, such "studies" by science-fiction historians do more harm, than help the cause of Russia's revival, since they put weighty arguments against patriotic ideology as such into the hands of opponents. (A special theme is the "research" of historian-provocateurs, who, under the guise of neo-pagan "Rodnovery", as opposed to "Judeo-Christianity", are trying to tear the passionate Russian youth away from their Orthodox roots, that is, from their ethnicity. This is a typical neo-Nazi technology, aimed at the "Russian Maidan.)

         In conclusion, we should add that Gumilyov's theory debunks another myth, very popular in the recent past, about the "priority of universal human values. In reality, for the triumph of human values it is necessary to merge all super-ethnoses into one universal hyper-ethnos. And this, as we know, is impossible because each super-ethnos has its own stock of passionarity, its own mentality, its own system of values - ethnic dominant.

         Gumilyov wrote: "Super-ethnic systems of values, as a rule, are mutually exclusive and, in any case, badly compatible with each other. The dominants will block the merger of super-ethnoses. For example, one can find a lot in the theology of Christianity, Islam and even Buddhism.  But historical practice shows that all previous attempts to artificially create not only a universal, but simply an inter-super ethnic system of values based on this common, have always ended in failure and have led only to additional bloodshed. In other words, Muslims in Azerbaijan consider the Gospel along with the Koran to be a holy book (Injil), and Jesus Christ – Is a prophet, but it does not and cannot lead to a reconciliation with the Armenian-Christians.

        In this connection we should note in parenthesis that today's activity of some representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church in establishing contacts with European Catholics and Protestants causes serious concern. It is obvious that the establishment of such "cooperation" only serves the interests of globalizers. As the great Dostoevsky wrote: "The sign of the destruction of nations is when the gods begin to become common. When the gods become common, both the gods, and belief in them die, along with the nations themselves. The stronger a nation is, the more special its god is.  Every nation has its own idea of good and evil, and its own evil and good. When many people begin to have a common concept of evil and good, then nations die out, and then the very difference between good and evil begins to fade and disappear.

         This is to the question of the modern "ecumenical movement".

         Continuing Gumilyov's thought about the poor compatibility of different value systems, we find that, the same applies not only to religions, but also to common ideologies. For example, both the USSR and China had the same ideology - Marxism-Leninism. But it did not bring peace between the two powers. The ethnic stereotypes of behavior and value systems of the Chinese and Russians are too different, moreover, mutually exclusive.

        Unlike, for example, Mongolia, China has always been and remains a potential enemy. Not only geopolitical, but also metaphysical. Again, this does not mean that we should stop our political and trade contacts with the Chinese, which are quite justified today. It means that we should keep our powder dry. And do not harbor any illusions. As we remember, our complementarity with the Chinese is by no means positive. The same goes for communist North Korea and socialist Vietnam.

         However, there are other things. For example, we were friends with socialist-oriented Latin American countries in the Soviet period and can still be friends in the post-Soviet period. And the point here is not ideological sympathies, but that our stereotypes of behavior and our value systems have some points of contact, and at least they are not mutually exclusive. (Especially since Catholicism in Latin America is different from European Catholicism, and has recently been losing its monopoly position.) The complementarity between the Latin American and Russian super-ethnoses is, if not positive, definitely not negative. The Russian character is much closer to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez than to the American cowboy Bush or the cunning Chinese Deng Xiaoping. We can say the same about relations with the majority of Muslim countries, which we should consider not as a source of "world terrorism" but as strategic allies in the fight against the West. Unlike, for example, our recent friends in the socialist camp, the Eastern Europeans.

          Ignorance of elementary laws of ethnogenesis and utopian ambition to build communism all over the world led to the fact that during Khrushchev-Brezhnev period we wasted huge sums on brotherly help to socialistic countries. Especially much money was spent on supporting underdeveloped Third World countries which "chose the socialist way"; first of all, in Africa, where some tribal chiefs-presidents used the communist rhetoric exclusively for receiving gratuitous aid from the USSR.

         Hence the conclusion: it is certainly necessary to look for allies and establish friendly relations with them, but to align everyone under one ideological template, i.e., to try to connect the unconnected, is impossible. This path leads to the dead end of globalization.

         Gumilyov wrote: "But even if one imagines the hypothetical fusion of mankind into a single hyper-ethnos as a fait accompli, even then not "universal values" but the ethnic dominance of a particular super-ethnos will prevail. It remains to add that this much simplified - the world totalitarian system will not be viable.

         The laws of ethnic history, let us repeat, are the laws of nature itself. And the movement of nature has its own, internal logic, which the will of people, let alone their "mind" cannot change. As historical practice shows - the impact of "noosphere" (a state of interconnected awareness among all minds, postulated as resulting from humanity's biological and cultural evolution), causes only unforeseen, destructive zigzags in natural processes.

Globalization and Ethnogenesis

         What is globalization? As a publicly stated project of the "new world order" globalization is the gradual removal of all existing borders on the planet - economic, state, cultural, religious - and the unification of humanity into one happy whole. According to the plan of globalizers in this new global world there will be no wars, conflicts or other ugly things, because everywhere there will be one economy, one money, one power, one culture, and even one "religion"!

         Globalization in practice (beginning of the XXI century) as defined by A. Fursov is the establishment of control by supranational structures ("Finintern") over: 1) world finances, 2) global media, 3) the leading politicians.

*Note: Globalization has reached a qualitatively new level in 2020, but this is a topic for a separate study.

        The globalists' strategic goal is world domination. Immediate goals: taking control of natural resources, reduction of the world population to 1 - 1.5 billion people, unification of the remaining humanity, and its step-by-step enslavement by the "golden million".

       The means of achievement: both "peaceful" (quiet genocide aimed at reducing fertility and increasing mortality, including with the help of "biotechnology") and military.

         Modern globalization is a multi-headed hydra. The diktat of supranational structures and TNCs is globalization. World terrorism, color revolutions, bombing of recalcitrant countries - this is globalization. False media, Hollywood and the debasement of education IS Globalization. The war against Christianity, the project of "vaccination" and "chipization" of the population, gay pride parades and "Harry Potter" - this is also globalization.

And this is not all areas of this "human project", the series can be continued.

        Totalitarian ideology of globalization, imposed on the world, denies any collective identity: national (cosmopolitanism), religious (ecumenism), social (atomization), family (same sex) and even in the future - human! (cloning, etc.).

         Globalization is an anti-human project. It is a big cudgel that has been hitting the ethnogenesis and cultural genesis of all peoples on planet Earth for over a hundred years. Even correcting for the aberration of proximity we can state: mankind has not experienced such a grandiose outrage in its many thousands of years of history!

         But where did this plague come from?  If we look at the history of the disease, we see that globalization was promoted by planetary factors accumulated over thousands of years: financial and economic (interest, capital), scientific and technological (NTR), ideological (substitution of religions with anti-systemic teachings and occultism), conspiracy theories (secret societies), etc. This is a separate, large topic, which we will not develop here.

         But if you look at this problem from the point of view of the passionary theory, it turns out that modern globalization is directly related, firstly, to a sharp intensification in recent centuries (since Columbus) contacts at super-ethnic level and, consequently - to the formation of new and activation of old ethnic chimeras and antisystems. Secondly, globalization is associated with the separation of large masses of people from the natural (feeding) landscape and their resettlement to cities, where representatives of different ethnic groups can live (19th - 20th centuries). And, thirdly, globalization is directly connected with the course of European ethnogenesis - the final phases of inertia and obscuration of the Western super-ethnos (XVIII - XXI centuries).

        In the language of ethnology, globalization is a simplification of the planetary system. That is its (the planetary system) stage-by-stage destruction!

         It should be emphasized that the completion of the process of formation of financial supranational structures and their incorporation into the body of Western super-ethnos became possible only when it entered a relaxed and materialistic phase of inertia, which almost coincided with the rapid growth of capitalism in Europe (Protestantism!), the beginning of NTD and the first stage of urbanization. (While other civilizations were still sleeping, or catching up.) And when the "enlightener" Diderot at the end of the 18th century could already have had the nerve to throw in a "liberation" slogan: "Our aim is to strangle the last king with the guts of the last pope!". 

        After World War I (1914-1918), which led to the fall of four major monarchies, this "progressive" goal was largely achieved. The obstacles to the development of world capital were removed, (though with a significant delay to Stalin's mobilization).  And by the time the West weakened and entered the phase of obscuration (late 20th century), and when the last obstacle - the USSR - collapsed, the financiers-globalizers finally dropped their masks and already openly declared their claims to world domination.

        The modern stage of globalization (10th years) is an attempt of the world financial oligarchy by all means, including power, to strengthen its "unipolar" positions in the world, noticeably shaken after the victorious euphoria of the ‘90s, while retaining the core of the Western civilization.

        The world oligarchy today is a new, almost non-national (i.e., chimerical) generation of the elite: mostly a mixture of international banking capital and the old Anglo-Saxon aristocracy. The "globalist aliens" expect to implement their plan of world domination at the expense of the resources of all mankind. This is the logic of the development of a cancerous tumor. And it must be admitted that in the last hundred years the "Finintern" has managed to achieve serious success on this path. However, the period of victory is coming to an end. Recently, we are witnessing the slowdown of globalization processes - the extensive offensive (capitalism) on the world is exhausted; there is nowhere else to "develop" (subordinate), in the old way.

       Obviously, under the prevailing conditions, the ruling class of this New Babylon will attempt to establish a liberal dictatorship on "its" territory, i.e. primarily in the West, which has almost lost its civilizational independence, and in the most dependent peripheral countries.

        But, ... But according to the theory of ethnogenesis, the phase of obscuration, sooner or later ends with the collapse of the ethnic system. Consequently, the globalization, relying on military and human resources of the West is also doomed to failure.

        In such a situation the world oligarchs have to: either look for support in some other civilization, which is impossible so far (an attempt with China is doubtful); or invent a new, more constructive global project, which is unlikely (they are not able to create). There is only one thing to do - to start the Great War as soon as possible! While there is still time.

        War is the most catastrophic scenario, which cannot but lead to great casualties. But on the other hand, only a war can force the leading nations of the world, and especially Russia, in a short time to mobilize and break free from the "tutelage" of the globalists. Especially since the Russian history shows: all of the serious crises in our country, we have come out of it in only one way - militarily. It turns out that the war (in its last, hot phase!) is more profitable for us than for them. Although, of course, it seems to them the opposite. But here we should make an important caveat: the later we go to war, the better. Because at this point in history, time is working against the globalists.  Time as we know, is working for us.

        If we apply Gumilyov's doctrine of anti-system to the problem of globalization, then we can draw the following conclusion: globalization is a product of planetary anti-system, structured in "Finintern, (international finances).

        Global anti-system - an octopus with many tentacles. "Finintern" is the center (very heterogeneous, with a vanguard of US. IT giants, Facebook, Google). Its agents: smaller anti-systems, from Freemasons, ecumenists, sectarians, and LGBT communities, to neo-Nazis, radical Islamists, "antifa", etc. - are scattered all over the world. It’s mainly in the Western world and its periphery. Today, all these agents are on the march, they are well mobilized and have already held their first "revolutions".

        If you look at the problem of globalization in terms of Christian eschatology, (concerned with the final events of history, or the ultimate destiny of humanity.) everything is very clear: globalization is a preparation for the coming of the Antichrist. The globalizers are Satanists, the servants of the devil.  What is already happening to humanity today was described in the Revelation of John the Evangelist two thousand years ago. However, according to the tradition of the church, this is not the end of earthly history, but only the first stage of the attack on the world of the infernal forces.

        Now for the main point.

        The sequence of stages of globalization is as follows:

        1) Banking globalization. The belief in money (power). (Financial capitalism since the 17th century. (Ends)).

        2) Zonal globalization. Transition to a multipolar world divided into zones (probably as a result of the Great War) regulated from a new center(s). It’s an active use of "digital" technologies, "artificial intelligence", etc. Introduction of new agents of influence in national elites, followed by a head-to-head collision of all world players and interception of political control (begins).

        The meaning of this stage: If it was not possible to take wholesale, they will take it retail (piecemeal).

        3) Religious globalization. Fanatical belief in their "God". Completion of the formation of a world government, a single world religion and the arrival of the Antichrist (coming ahead).

      The hierarchy of goals and meanings of the globalists in this historical movement to world power is as follows: first money, then political and intellectual power, and finally the realization of the religious idea - the construction of the kingdom of the Antichrist. Thus, the ideological globalists win over the non-ideological ones ("Zealots" - "Sadducees") in the final phase. 

       What exactly will happen between the first and the last stage of globalization, we can only speculate, options are possible here. But the beginning and the end are known: from mammon to the world king (not for long, see the Apocalypse).

        But the important question for us is: how can all these processes threaten modern Russia? The answer is obvious: since the old "world government" failed (now – inertia phase), and the new one has not yet been formed - then there is a pause. And this respite can be used to gather strength and turn on the Russian mobilization project.

        In this regard we hasten to calm down our historical pessimists and other "all-right-wingers", which in recent times are in plenty. Do not panic! Not yet! The end of history has not yet come. Why? Because according to the theory of ethnogenesis multimillion passionate people of the Earth at this point in history - stronger than a small group of "world conspirators".  Of course, these "conspirators" are still powerful enough to put up resistance and cause mankind a global catastrophe (up to and including World War!). But strategically they have lost. For neither to believe, nor to create, are they able to do.

       And practice has also shown that these "aliens" are strong as long as they act in secret. (Their principle is a lie! - said Gumilyov.) Therefore the slogan of today should be: "Glasnost, Glasnost and Glasnost again! As they used to say in the old days: "By the ear and into the sun!

 World Crisis and Ethnogenesis

        Lately (by the10th year) many scientists and politicians are anxious about causes of the world crisis which last escalation was in 2007-2009. Most often observers consider only one, financial and economic aspect of this phenomenon. However, it is no secret that finance and economics are just the tip of the iceberg; the roots of the current crisis go much deeper. If we look at the problem from the perspective of Gumilyov's theory, it turns out that the present crisis is not so much financial and economic as civilizational. It is 1) a crisis of the entire complex planetary civilization, and 2) a crisis-collapse of the Western super-ethnos.

       Crises-decay of super-ethnoses, as we know, have occurred before, for example, in Ancient Rome, Byzantium, Ancient China. However, the peculiarity of the modern crisis of the West is that it takes place in the era of globalization. That is, the influence of supranational, anti-systemic structures (investment companies, global banks, IT-companies, global mass media, special services, private military companies, etc.), the control centers of which are situated in the West, is increasing.

       This is the fundamental difference of the present crisis from previous super-ethnic crises: while the agony of the Roman Empire affected only the Mediterranean and its periphery, the present crisis of the Western super-ethnos has touched the whole world in one way or another. And to a greater extent, those countries that have been drawn into the orbit of the decaying Western civilization (which is under foreign control) have suffered, and still will suffer.

        But the main problem of our time lies not even in this, but in the very fact of the open attack of the steamroller of globalization on national economies, cultures and religions speaks of the first crisis of a complex planetary system in human history - the transition from diversity to monotony!  And monotony in everything from hamburgers and leaky jeans to Hollywood movies and TV news.  From "online shopping" to the fashion for foreign travel, with millions of people scurrying around the world like migratory birds! (Saint Ambrose of Optina did not say for nothing: "Sit the frog in his puddle, or else all will be worse".)

        It should be emphasized that the attempt of the globalizers to simplify the "blossoming complexity" on planet Earth is a powerful blow not to some individual civilizations, but to all of humanity, and to its future”. This is the main feature of the modern era - thousands of years of accumulated, accumulated ... and accumulated!

         The second distinctive feature of the current planetary crisis is that it is directly related to the ecological, biospheric crisis caused by a mad race for the consumption of nonrenewable natural resources. This planetary crisis has been prepared by the entire course of the development of the technosphere, from the primitive stick-digger to the rotary excavator, from the fishpond to gigantic hydroelectric plants, from the stone axe to the ballistic missile. And all this accumulated quantity is already changing before our eyes into a new, destructive quality... Another long-standing myth is crumbling.

        It’s the myth that Progress is Good. It turns out that such progress is bad. It is bad not for the urbanized inhabitant (for him, relaxed by technical comfort, it is still good), but bad for Mother Earth, which with the last forces endures this mockery of herself. How long will this “ecological patience” last? Let's repeat that for the last 150 - 200 years of scientific and technological progress Homo sapiens has destroyed more on the Earth than during the whole 50 thousand years of its existence as a species! And, to all appearances, it is not about to stop.  (And the fact that the globalists today speculate on the topic of ecology does not eliminate the problem).

       Turning to Gumilyov's teachings, let us emphasize once again - the strength of the theory of ethnogenesis is that it is based on the laws of nature, given by God, (or “the way that it is”), rather than on scientific speculation stemming from the Western "theory of progress", that is, the theory of the destruction of nature. (Generally speaking, in a spiritual sense – it’s all evolutionary theories, including Marx's, that come from the devil, because they have no beginning and no end!)

        In his last article, written in 1992 and co-authored with K. Ivanov, Gumilyov cautions: "Considering that each ethnos represents an original form of human adaptation in the biocenosis (an ecological community especially when forming a self-regulating unit), of the landscape, we can notice that super-ethnoses usually exist within the boundaries of certain ethno-landscape zones.

        Thus the northern border of the Roman world did not cross the zone of grapevine distribution.  The Muslim East, or Levant, as a super-ethnos did not extend far beyond the borders of the date palm cultivated in the oases and almost coincided with the semi-desert zone, where a remarkable symbiosis of man and camel was formed. The dry steppes of Eurasia represent the ecological niche of the Steppe super-ethnos.  The Great Wall of China separates the steppe landscapes from subtropical China, where the peoples of China, laboriously growing rice, live in the Huanghe and Yangtze basins.

        Of course, some find sustenance outside of the landscape that feeds the ethnos, as the English did in India, for example, or as the inhabitants of modern megacities and urban conglomerations do. But in terms of the history of the ethnosphere, these are short-lived fluctuations. It’s the exception, not the rule. At the population level, i.e. at the level of the ethnos as a whole, existence outside the ethnos is unthinkable. And so modern industrial civilization is doomed. It does not disappear only due to the unprecedented rate of robbery of natural resources accumulated by the biosphere for billions of years and the desecration of unique landscapes. The fate of Mohenjo-Daro and Babylon awaits it. Only an ecological disaster will occur on a larger scale.

        This all goes back to the same question about the prospects of a consuming civilization.

        Thus, the latest crisis is not only an economic crisis of modern usurious capitalism, which has turned from national to supranational and has already exhausted its extensive "market resource" (we repeat, it has nowhere else to expand). The problem is much broader. Today we are witnessing another exacerbation of the Great Planetary Crisis, which began back in the 20th century. There are three crises in one - the crisis of the complex ethno-cultural system of the planet (the beginning of the "global all-mixing"!), - the crisis of the biosphere, and - the crisis of the "leading" Western super-ethnos.

        There has never been such a triple supercrisis in the history of mankind.

        We conclude. Since these three crises are planetary in nature and mutually influence each other, then it should accelerate the already ongoing processes of disintegration. Firstly - the collapse of the global capitalist system. Secondly, the collapse of the Western super-ethnos. Thirdly, and most importantly, the decay or at least a strong contraction of the consuming mega-civilization, which dates back to the first city-states of Egypt and Mesopotamia (4th millennium).

       This Great Planetary Crisis can only be solved through a global war-revolution, or rather through a series of wars, incomparable in scale to any civilizational revolution ever experienced by mankind. Let us repeat that NTR and globalization are not just a stage in the development of planetary civilization, it is a much more serious and dangerous phenomenon that will lead to a tipping point, when people will no longer be able to "manage" nature in the old way, and the biosphere will no longer want to tolerate this violence of people against themselves.

        In the spiritual sense, the Great Planetary Crisis can be looked at as a punishment. A Punishment from God. And the coming war is a Purification.

If it is just In this context, the "great and terrible" globalists, who have already started a war against humanity, are simply tools in the hands of God!

        If we apply Gumilyov's curve of ethnogenesis to all human history, it becomes obvious that the world civilization, created by the hands of "reasonable man", has long passed its acmatic midpoint of life, and for at least several centuries (since the beginning of financial capitalism in Europe in the 13th century), is moving towards simplification.  How long she has left - none of the people know. But, again, thanks to Gumilyov we can predict: despite the fact that the historical clouds are thickening, this Great Planetary Crisis is not the last, and humanity does have some time for reflection.

        Therefore, to the very popular today’s question: what will happen next? - The answer is quite optimistic: there will be a return to tradition. That is a return to a multipolar world. To national economies and finances. To national cultures. To national religions. Each super-ethnos in its own way. And, of course, as much as possible after two hundred years of open warfare globalization.

         So the question is not "what will happen after capitalism?" but how and to what extent the complex ethno-cultural planetary system will be restored. Let us recall the iron rule of ethnic history: Everything comes from man! Therefore, first - ethnicities! Then cultures! And then - "economies". (In this case, of course, each super-ethnos will have its own ratio of capitalism and socialism. In our country the ratio will probably be 50:50, or at first a bit more in favor of socialism. See separate chapters for details.)

         Someone will say: well, you have fantasized a lot! - There will be this and there will be that! - And, in general, what is the basis for such statements? - And we'll answer: the basis for our optimism is a key provision of Gumilyov's doctrine of anti-systems: "Denial was their strength, but denial is also their weakness: denial helped them win, but did not let them win totally.  Ideologically, anti-systems never win.  Apparently, nature itself has a mechanism of self-preservation, resilience. Biosphere has the ability to release energy, including passionate, which protects itself.

        It remains to add: in this way, life (super-ethnoses) struggles with death (globalization).

 On the extent of people's influence on history

         And now, from global problems let us turn to history. More precisely - to historiography. Having become familiar with Gumilyov's concept, the reader may ask: so if ethnogenesis is a natural process, and everything "goes by itself", does it mean that nothing depends on us at all? We hasten to reassure the reader, it does.  But not as much as it seems. And, most importantly, not at all times. Sometimes you have to wait for the wind of change to blow in the right direction. And then you can run to make history. (This is to speak of the impatient.)

         We will not cite here examples of the independence of the will of the people (a significant part of it) from those political and non-political decisions that have been made in our country in recent decades. This is common knowledge. Let's look at it from a different angle. Imagine that in the "wild" 1990s, a comrade Stalin suddenly appeared in the leadership of our country. A real leader. An iron hand. So what would he have been able to do in that situation? He would have been able to do nothing! The great Stalin was necessary and legitimate in a particular historical situation (and it took him 15 years of preparatory work before he could decisively change course in 1936-37). Just as natural was in a different historical situation the pygmy Gorbachev. Both kept pace with history. Each in his own time: the first in a period of a passionate surge (from below), the second in a period of a passionate depression (both from above and below).

         Another example is Don Quixote. From the point of view of ethnology, the tragedy of this noble knight was that he simply fell out of history, that is, out of the current phase of ethnogenesis. That is why he was declared insane. Don Quixote is the nostalgia of idealist-passionarians for the forever gone heroic phase of overheating in Europe. In the bourgeois phase of civilization, noble knights turned out to be of no use to anyone. What exploits?! What honor?! No fanaticism allowed! We have to make money.

         The theory of the hero and the crowd in terms of ethnogenesis is wrong. One hero-passionary cannot achieve anything if he does not have enough passionate helpers. All together - be it the ruling elite or the counter-elite - they form that vanguard that leads all the rest - the harmonious and weak-passionary people. But for this vanguard to be replenished by active people, a high level of passionarity of the entire ethnos (super-ethnos) is required. In other words, both the Russian noble elite and the Soviet ruling class (in the 1920s-50s) drew from the same source, the thickness of the people. From there came the Suvorovs, the Lomonosovs, the Stalinist commissars and the marshals of Victory in 1945. But if the passionate tension in the Russian ethnos (Russian super-ethnos) was zero, then no one would have come out of it.  In this sense, the people affect the course of their history - it moves it.

         Here is an example. After the revolutionary upheavals of 1917, which plunged the country into chaos and devastation, it seemed to many "observers" that that was it: "Russia is over, Russia no longer exists! The Western bankers who financed the three Russian revolutions were satisfied - their plans had worked! What was left of the Russian Empire could be taken with their bare hands. But, ... But they did not succeed!  The fact is that the Western bankers did not know the amazing laws of ethnogenesis. They did not consider that the most ingenious plans and volitional efforts of the leaders cannot cancel the natural property of passionarity. Just as a poplar tree, cut down to its foundations, continues to grow, so too, a people that has not lost its passionarity, continues to reborn no matter what. That is why, twenty years later, in place of the fallen colossus of the Russian Empire, a new superpower, the Soviet Union, was created. And start so vigorously that globalization was delayed for many decades. (And, we repeat, will still be delayed!).   

           But of course, all of the above does not cancel the subjective factor. If we talk about the influence of individuals and small groups of people on history, then we must admit that the human-will plays a significant role in the historical process. But mainly at the level of tactics, not strategy. This means that the volitional efforts of individuals are always limited to a certain "corridor of possibilities. As Comrade Stalin said: "There is a logic of intentions and a logic of circumstances, and the logic of circumstances is stronger than the logic of intentions. In this case, the value of the will-factor increases in the case when this will is directed towards the movement of history, not against it.

          Gumilyov wrote: "It would be ridiculous to deny that human intentions and works of human hands affect history, and sometimes very strongly, creating unforeseen violations - zigzags - in the course of historical processes. But the measure of human influence on history is not as great as commonly thought, because at the population level, history is regulated not by social impulses of consciousness, but by biospheric impulses of passionarity.

        Figuratively speaking, we can move the hands on the clock of history like frolicking foolish children, but we do not have the ability to wind the clock. We have politicians playing the role of presumptuous children. They move the hands of the clock from 3 o'clock in the afternoon to 12 o'clock at night, and then they wonder: "Why has the night not fallen and why aren't the workers going to bed?" (Or in other words, why have we been introducing "universal" values "like theirs" for so many years, but they never do? Probably, it’s the country that’s wrong, some backward country!)

        "Thus, - continues Gumilyov, - those who make decisions, do not take into account the natural nature of the processes taking place in the ethnic sphere". And knowing the passionary theory of ethnogenesis, you are not at all surprised by the fact that everything is "bad" in the country. You are surprised that we still exist. This is what Gumilyov wrote about the time of Gorbachev and the beginning of the reign of Yeltsin.

         Let us add for ourselves that such ("perestroika") historical zigzags are still not accidental and have their reasons. We repeat, however, on a transient and tactical level, but not on a strategic one. Historical practice shows that if the stock of passionarity in an ethnos hasn't been depleted, and the ethnic tradition is not lost, then such zigzags sooner or later are corrected by history and everything returns to the natural law of ethnogenesis. That is - it continues to go the way it should go. And the subjective factor of political leadership is simply attached to this movement of history. Exactly - it is attached! Therefore, to paraphrase a well-known expression we can say that every nation deserves a ruler who corresponds to the level of passionate tensions and the vector of the development of the ethnic system.

         Let us repeat once more that today we are at the beginning of a new, great period of Russian History. Not in the middle, not at the end, not at the side, but at the beginning! What many still don't understand, and that's why they are worried: what if something goes wrong! There are enemies everywhere! Once again they are plotting a coup.

        Of course, the enemy is not sleeping, and can even make some big trouble, but it is important to understand that he - this collective enemy - is at the end of his next (40-year) period, then there is only inertia! Therefore the advantage is on our side. And to understand this you do not have to be a clever boy, you have to learn to see history in motion! But it’s not by Marx or the liberal modernizers, (there it’s a historical dead end), but by Gumilyov. Then there will be order in the head.

          The mistake of our time is that most people see only the tip of the iceberg (current politics) and do not see the main thing - the iceberg itself (the state of the people). That is why most of today's analysts and experts are passionately engaged in "flea fishing," i.e., superficial questions. For example: why did the ruler not do this (good), but did this and that (bad)? Probably a bad ruler! (Or maybe he has been switched!?) How could we remove him? Or vice versa - the ruler did everything right, although it is possible, of course, even more right. We only have to point out his mistakes, and ask him to stay!

        It seems to be all reasonable, and there is nothing to pick on. But it’s at the level of tactics, not strategy. If we look at it from the point of view of ethnology, that is, look at the root, we see that the ruler is not the cause, but a consequence of the underlying movement of history, in which the main character is the people themselves, which is in a particular phase of ethnogenesis. And sometimes, even between phases. (Plus the factor of globalization in the 19th and early 21st centuries.)

        If we pass from scientific methodology to religious methodology, that is, if we rise to a higher, metaphysical level, then the picture of the world becomes even clearer and more convincing.

       History is God's Providence. Just as every person has his own task in life, so every nation has its own task. That is why there are no good or bad nations. All are needed to do God's will. And just as God sends man trials and tribulations for man’s own good, so nations are healed by God with trials and tribulations ... sometimes through appropriate rulers. And so it continues as long as the nations deserve this healing. For as we know, "they heal the living, they beautify the dead".

       The fundamental spiritual law in the metaphysical approach to history is the Law of Conformity. It says: Whatever the spiritual (religious) state of the people, so is reality. In other words - what people have in their heads, that is in their deeds.  And what they deserve, they get.

        And most importantly, according to religious methodology, human history on Earth has its beginning and its end, followed by a new beginning! And if so, then the history becomes meaningful. A real one, not a plastic one.

        You can agree or disagree with this approach to history. It is up to each individual to decide. But still worth thinking (for people with a positive outlook), why this world is arranged so intelligently and expediently? 

        And why in history you can find thousands of examples when people wanted to do this and that, but it turned out differently. And this "other way," in the end, was better for people.  The atheist will say: this does not prove anything, whatever happens in life. The believer will say: God's will!

        As for the freedom of each person to choose one or another direction of action in a particular phase of ethnogenesis, in this connection Konstantin Leontiev's thought about the ratio of conservative and progressive elements in the state seems useful.

        He poses the question: "When are progressives right and when are conservatives right"?   Before the times of Caesar, Pericles, Louis XIV, etc. (i.e., before the times of blossom, before the blossoming epoch) the progressives are right. They lead the state to blossom and growth at this time.

         But after the blossoming and difficult epoch, when the process of secondary mixing and simplification begins (according to Gumilyov - phases of fracture, inertia, obscuration - Auth.), all progressives are made wrong in theory, although they often triumph in practice; thinking to correct, but they only destroy. Conservatives in this era are quite right: they want to heal and strengthen the state organism, they rarely triumph, but, as much as they can, they slow down decay, returning the nation, sometimes violently, to the culture of the statehood that created it.

         Until the day of blossoming ... it is better to be a sail or a steam boiler, after that irretrievable day it is more worthy to be an anchor or a brake for peoples striving, often merrily, to their doom."

         Exactly!.. And how relevant in our "merry" times.

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